Comments on: Is the Worst Finally Behind Us?

By: Jason Staggers

Jason Staggers — Mon, 20 May 2019 01:02:12 +0000

Hi Eggy. Thanks for your question, and I agree there’s no such thing as a stupid question :)

Housing credit growth to investors peaked in mid-2015 at about 10.8% growth per year. Currently, the growth rate is around 0.1%. When prices started rising in 2012/2013, the growth rate for property investor loans was around 5-6%. So I’d say we would need to see credit growth to investors growing at least in the 6 to 7% range unless there was a big surge in owner-occupier lending growth toward 10% per annum.

Even with a renewed optimism from a Liberal victory, we’ll need to see lending restrictions loosened before house prices can continue rising, which begs the question, “How much more debt can we service?”

Hope that helps.

Jason

By: Eggy

Eggy — Sat, 18 May 2019 11:13:00 +0000

Hi Jason
I was once told that if you want to know what the market is going to do is watch the banks. This seems to follow what you have said here. So what sort of credit growth numbers would indicate a rising market to follow? I’m new here so excuse my ignorance plus I was once told no question is stupid if you want to learn☺️

By: Schnake

Schnake — Fri, 10 May 2019 10:02:21 +0000

…the market.

(Apologies Jason, re-reading my question, it sounds like I was questioning you directly. That wasn’t my intent). Great article, as always.

By: Jason Staggers

Jason Staggers — Fri, 10 May 2019 09:54:09 +0000

A change in sentiment from who?

By: Jason Staggers

Jason Staggers — Fri, 10 May 2019 09:53:18 +0000

Thanks Matt.

By: Schnake

Schnake — Fri, 10 May 2019 09:12:24 +0000

So what has fundamentally changed in the economy to prompt a change in sentiment?

By: Matt Chamberlain

Matt Chamberlain — Thu, 09 May 2019 00:03:21 +0000

Great article Jason