Comments on: Who’s the Fool: A Lesson From John Templeton On Market Cycles

By: Jason Staggers

Jason Staggers — Wed, 20 Apr 2016 05:03:56 +0000

ABS publishes monthly data on building approvals: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/8731.0

By: wadez

wadez — Tue, 19 Apr 2016 11:13:29 +0000

Jason do you know where i can find information on housing formation and housing approval for any given area?

By: Jason Staggers

Jason Staggers — Fri, 18 Sep 2015 03:32:28 +0000

We’d have to hit a 0% cash rate first. Wouldn’t that be interesting.

By: wCha

wCha — Thu, 17 Sep 2015 09:11:47 +0000

QE perhaps?

By: Jason Staggers

Jason Staggers — Thu, 17 Sep 2015 07:31:07 +0000

Thanks @wcha858. If Templeton is right, it is only a matter of time. The question though is to what extent will central bankers and politicians go to prop up the economy. They may kick the can farther down the road yet again, but as you say, the more they do to avert the inevitable, it only serves to exacerbate the pain of a subsequent market downturn. Let’s hope we don’t go as far as the USA, Europe, Japan and China have gone.

By: wCha

wCha — Thu, 17 Sep 2015 05:54:23 +0000

Great post Jason! We definitely are in the boom period now and heading towards the next stage. It’s just a matter of ‘when’ it will happen.

It’s interesting to note from a report I’ve read recently that global debt is now 40% higher than it was during the GFC.

I feel that when there is a build up of debt when assets are expensive, it will exacerbate the pain of a subsequent market downturn. With such low interest rates, debt has become more affordable and it seems speculative investments are on the rise with investors trying to ‘jump on the bandwagon’ as you mentioned. Unsustainable household debt was noted as one of the core ingredients of the 2008 crisis and with statistics showing Australia’s household debt-to-income ratios on the rise, it might be the signs of some bad times to come.